Federal forces in Ethiopia have entered the regional capital of Mekelle after nearly two weeks of intense fighting, according to a report by Al Jazeera. The renewed hostilities have effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile peace that followed the devastating initial conflict in the region.
According to Al Jazeera, Ethiopian federal forces utilized both air power and ground troops to advance across Tigray. Following successive defeats around the towns of Alamata and Kobo, rebel forces including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew into the surrounding countryside, with TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael stating that they would confront the enemy on their terms.
Background
Al Jazeera reported that the fighting that erupted late last month bears echoes of the conflict that began in 2020. At that time, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory after federal forces captured Mekelle, only for Tigrayan forces to regroup in the mountains and prolong the war for nearly a year and a half.
Today, Ethiopia is already facing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, raising the prospect of federal forces being stretched across multiple fronts. Furthermore, battlefield reversals suffered by the rebels have raised concerns among Ethiopia's neighbours, according to Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute cited by Al Jazeera. Ibrahim noted that Egypt views the Renaissance Dam and potential Ethiopian moves toward the Red Sea as strategic threats, leading to regional alliances involving Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia.
Why it matters
For international observers and readers monitoring global stability, the escalation highlights the fragile nature of post-conflict zones and the complex geopolitical rivalries surrounding landlocked nations seeking sea access. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea gained independence in 1991, and Prime Minister Abiy's renewed focus on securing access to the Red Sea since 2023 has heightened regional tensions, particularly with Eritrea regarding the port of Assab.