Key points

  • Aluminium prices dropped to their lowest point in over two weeks on Tuesday, according to Business Recorder.
  • China's aluminium exports rose by 18 percent to 5.9 million tons during the first ten months of the year, Business Recorder reported.
  • Analysts at ANZ project that global supply growth will outpace demand and shift the market into a surplus by 2027.

Global metal markets experienced a notable shift as aluminium values retreated to levels not witnessed since late October, driven by higher shipments from the world's leading producer and diminishing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to a Business Recorder report.

Key Details

Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange registered a 1.1 percent decline, settling at $3,031.50 per metric ton by 0950 GMT after touching an intraday low of $3,014, Business Recorder reported. Customs data cited by the publication showed that Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached 5.9 million tons over the first 10 months of the year, marking an 18 percent increase. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he would refrain from new military strikes against Iran for the time being following appeals from regional nations, according to the same report. Production restarts in the Middle East following disruptions related to the Iran conflict have advanced at a faster pace than anticipated, contributing to the downward price pressure alongside planned production capacity expansions in Indonesia.

Context and Impact

Despite the recent downturn, aluminium prices remain supported by relatively low global inventories, and prices are expected to hold above $3,000 through early 2027 amid ongoing regional volatility risks, Business Recorder noted. ANZ analysts observed that increasing metal returns from the Middle East and rising Indonesian output will likely outpace global demand growth, flipping the market into a surplus by 2027 and capping future price gains.

Summary and What Next

While near-term price volatility is expected to persist due to lingering supply risks in the Middle East, broader market fundamentals point toward a balanced or surplus outlook in the coming years. Further developments will depend on inventory levels and the pace of production ramps in key supplying regions.