Key points

  • China imported 7.35 million metric tons of soybeans in October, according to customs data reported by Business Recorder.
  • The volume marked a 22.5% decrease from the previous year and a 38% fall compared to September.
  • High crusher inventories, negative margins, and low pork prices dampened buying demand, analysts told Business Recorder.

China's appetite for foreign soybeans hit a multi-year low in October, sliding to its weakest volume for the month since 2023 as domestic processing margins turned negative and stockpiles piled up. According to customs figures cited by Business Recorder, the world's largest buyer brought in 7.35 million metric tons during the month, missing fourth-quarter analyst expectations of around 9.5 million tons per month.

Key Details

Customs data published on Tuesday and reported by Business Recorder showed that October's import volume dropped 22.5% from the record 9.48 million tons registered a year earlier. Liu Jinlu, an agriculture researcher at Beijing-based Guoyan Futures, told Business Recorder that South American old-crop supplies were running out while bulk shipments of new-crop US soybeans had yet to begin. High inventories at crushers and weak crushing margins also slowed purchases and shipment scheduling. From January to October, total soybean arrivals reached 93.48 million tons, representing a 2.3% decline compared to the same period in the previous year.

Context and Impact

Private soybean processors in China face a challenging fourth-quarter supply squeeze as inventories tighten in top exporter Brazil, while tariffs keep US cargoes largely out of reach, Business Recorder noted. Analysts also expect China's pig herd to contract in the fourth quarter, contributing to low pork prices that further weaken buying appetite.

Summary and What Next

According to analysts cited by Business Recorder, a recovery in import volumes through November and December will depend heavily on China-US trade relations and improvements in crushing margins. Key risks moving forward include US weather disruptions, slower export shipments, and uncertain planting weather in South America.